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AUDNZD: Intraday Analysis update & Forecast

The Australian and New Zealand dollars stood near their 4-1/2 month highs on Friday, drawing partial support from Chinese data showing some improvement in the economy, while bonds retained their gains on monetary easing hopes abroad and at home. Swaps are pricing in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand won’t have to follow up with its threat to hike any more but could deliver an almost 100 basis points of easing next year given the weakness in the economy.

New Zealand’s 10-year government bond yields (NZ10YT=RR) slid 30 basis points this week, the biggest drop since October 2022, to 4.642%. The two-year swap rate (NZDSM3NB2Y=) dived 38 basis points this week to 4.8050%, the most in 13 years.

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