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AUDUSD: Long Term Analysis & Forecast

The RBA has paused and resumed rate hikes twice this year with this month seeing another 25 bps hike despite discussions of another pause having taken place. In the end, it was decided that a hike would provide greater assurances that inflation risks are being delt with seriously. Australia’s core measure of inflation for Q3 (trimmed mean) revealed a move higher from 0.9% to 1.2% – motivating the committee to raise rates one more time.

While other central banks are facing expectations of rate cuts on the horizon, the futures market is not seriously anticipating the need to cut rates in Australia and is actually revealing the real possibility of another hike being required before the end of Q2 2024.

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