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Dollar Index: Intraday Analysis & FOMC Forecast


The dollar rises ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve decision later on speculation that it could tweak forecasts to signal just two rather than three rate cuts this year following recent strong inflation data. However, the dollar’s gains could be curtailed if the Fed doesn’t accompany any changed forecasts with a “marked shift in tone” away from Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent statement that policymakers are “not far” from cutting rates, says MUFG analyst Derek Halpenny in a note. A “reasonably balanced Fed communication,” as MUFG expects, “should help curtail further U.S. dollar buying and weaken the current positive momentum,” particularly if rate forecasts are unchanged, he says. The DXY dollar index rises 0.6% to 104.009.

| Intraday Analysis | 1H Time Frame |

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