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EURUSD: Intraday Analysis update |Outlook|

EUR/USD could fall this month as seasonal performance for each October since 2000 shows it has posted a negative return in 13 of the last 23 years. While seasonality trends should not be considered in isolation with other factors they can be a useful tool.

The Federal Reserve is well ahead of the European Central Bank in terms of policy rates, and this is expected to be the case for the foreseeable future. With the ECB, as disinflation accelerates, a rate cut debate could gain momentum. EUR/USD is not only bearish because of differences in central bank policy rates between the ECB and the Fed, technical factors also weigh.

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