Forex (SPOT)Premium

EURUSD Analysis & Short Term Forecast

Since the March policy meeting, inflation has proved much more stubborn than initially anticipated. In turn, the prevailing narrative among Federal Reserve officials has been one of needing more confidence before lowering rates.

As a result, the timing of the first-rate cut continues to be pushed back. Markets are not fully priced for a cut until November. Although, given the close proximity of the U.S. election it is unlikely the Fed would begin its easing cycle in November, or the September meeting for that matter. Alongside this, easing priced in for 2024 stands at 35bps (0#FEDWATCH).

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