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EURUSD: Daily Analysis & Setup update

The European Central Bank policy announcement is due at 13.15 GMT on Thursday and we take a look at market expectations and the likely FX reaction.

Analysts polled by Reuters unanimously expect rates to be kept on hold at 4.5% in January with no changes to policy instruments. There are broad expectations that ECB President Christine Lagarde will push back against aggressive market pricing of rate cuts, with 18bps currently priced for April and 42bps by June, with a total of 130bps by December. While no new staff projections are due, the ECB is likely to recognise weaker growth and inflation.

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