Forex (SPOT)Premium

EURUSD: Intraday Analysis & Forecast update

The FX volatility premium attached to FX options that expire after a key event like Friday’s U.S. NFP data can offer clues about the expected FX reaction.

Volatility is an unknown yet key parameter of an option premium, so dealers use implied volatility – their best guess. If realised volatility matches implied over the life of the option then it should cover the premium, while any excess realised volatility should return a profit and vice versa.

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