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EURUSD: Intraday Analysis update & NFP Forecast

Non-farm payroll data later today has the potential to re-engage the EUR/USD downtrend should there be an upside surprise. However other labour data this week suggests an upside surprise is the least likely outcome.

On Tuesday, job openings shot up towards 10 million after experiencing some easing over the past few months but private payroll data from ADP disappointed (89K vs 153k). The outside chance of a hot NFP print is likely to inspire a continuation of the EUR/USD downtrend as yields and the dollar take center stage once again. A print in line or a sizeable miss could act to extend the pullback. Should there be more progress in US inflation (due next week) the pair may actually see a longer lasting correction.

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