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EURUSD: Intraday Analysis update


The U.S. dollar, which has already weakened substantially in November, has a historic tendency to weaken into the year-end, which could be a positive signal for EUR/USD, says Derek Halpenny, head of research at MUFG, in a note. “There is a seasonal bias that is quite compelling for EUR/USD in December,” he says. In 14 Decembers in the last 20 years EUR/USD gained an average of an “impressive” 2.6%, he says. Even excluding December 2008, when EUR/USD gained 10.1%, the average gain over the other 13 occasions was still 2.0%, he says. EUR/USD is last up 0.1% at 1.0898, having dropped to a one-week low of 1.0879 on Thursday.

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