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EURUSD: Intraday update & Forecast

The dollar struggled for direction on Tuesday ahead of key data that could provide further clues on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy path, while the yen rose after figures confirmed inflation was above the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) target. Markets have recently pulled back expectations on the timing and size of Fed rate cuts this year, as the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation pressures failed to subside significantly. The release of the PCE deflator on Thursday is one of the key highlights in the U.S. calendar this week and could suggest less aggressive bets on Fed easing.

Analysts said the single currency strengthened as markets scaled back their bets on future European Central Bank rate cuts to 90 bps by year-end (EURESTECBM7X8=ICAP), amid encouraging signals from the economy, which supports expectations for a pick-up in growth in the second half of 2024.

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