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EURUSD: Setup update & PCE Forecast

The euro could benefit again if the national inflation figures surprise upwards, coming in above forecasts, Michael Pfister, FX analyst at Commerzbank Research, says in a note. “That would at least be a clear indication that we will also see higher values ​​tomorrow,” he says, referring to Friday’s release of the flash estimate eurozone inflation data. Higher-than-expected eurozone inflation could validate expectations that the European Central Bank is likely to wait some more before starting cutting interest rates. Money market forwards price in the first 25 basis point ECB rate cut for June, according to Refinitiv. Flash estimate French CPI data for February are due at 0745 GMT, while flash estimate German CPI data will be released at 1300 GMT. EUR/USD is flat at 1.0835.

 

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