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EURUSD Waiting for the ECB’s decision

The symbolism is doubtless unintentional, but nevertheless it’s fitting that the European Central Bank will — barring a massive surprise — choose to start its campaign of rate cuts on the 80th anniversary of the D-Day landings. This event is nowhere near as significant, but it comes at an appropriate time. The greatest military operation in history can be seen as a first step toward creating the peaceful, prosperous Europe that the bank represents and is now under its greatest strain since the end of the Cold War.

As with other central banks, rate cut expectations have been reined in so far this year. This chart is from the Bloomberg World Interest Rate Probabilities function, derived from overnight index swaps.

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