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GBPUSD: Daily Analysis update & Forecast

The main mover for sterling this week will likely be the November inflation report, in part due to the sizeable amount of easing priced in for next year. Currently, the market has priced in over four 25bps rate cuts, the first of which is projected to happen by May (0#BOEWATCH).

While this may end up being correct and somewhat in line with the typical time between the last rate hike of the cycle and the first cut , Bank of England policymakers so far do not subscribe to that view, given that inflation remains elevated, in particular the closely watched services CPI — currently 6.6% — and thus officials have leaned against rate cut pricing.

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