CommodityTrading Idea

GOLD: Rebound in short-term? |Pattern|

WEEKLY OUTLOOK

Gold extended losses on Monday for the sixth consecutive session to hit a near seven-month low, as the dollar stayed strong, with traders digesting a key U.S. inflation report as they positioned for a slew of job market data due this week. Spot gold dropped 0.4% to $1,840.49 per ounce by 0545 GMT, its lowest since March 10. U.S. gold futures shed 0.5% to $1,856.20. Last week, bullion posted its biggest weekly decline since June 2021 to end the third quarter 3.7% lower.
The data out of the U.S. is getting softer and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s squeeze is starting to show up in more and more places. If the data starts looking weak this week, gold might find an attempt to carve out a bottom.
The dollar held near a 10-month high, while Treasury yields were off a 16-year peak. Underlying U.S. inflation moderated in August, data on Friday showed, with the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a measure of inflation closely watched by the Federal Reserve, now averaging near its 2% target for the last three months. New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank may be done with rate rises as inflation pressures, while still elevated, are moving back toward the official target.
Higher rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, which is priced in dollars and does not yield any interest.

Intraday Analysis | 1H |

Even if at the moment we cannot yet confirm this Pattern, we do not exclude a technical bounce first, and potential Head and Shoulders on 1H chart with Target around 1,900 area. With this in mind, we wait for the first signal of a technical rebound and follow its dynamics, from a technical point of view, if Gold triggers a bullish leg with 5 waves, it is possible that a corrective structure (in this case bullish) will appear.

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